Shortfall Larger by $96 Million

Today, the Caseload Forecast Council released updated projections of the number of Washingtonians that will access state services. Overall, the total increase in costs due to caseload projections was $26.8 million. The Office of Financial Management also released estimates of increased program costs totaling $69 million. In total, the state budget deficit is now $95.7 million higher.

Today’s news emphasizes the need for a stronger revenue strategy than has been considered so far. The $95.7 million added to the shortfall today is more than the Governor’s revenue proposal and nearly half of the House proposal (HB 3176)  that will be heard this weekend.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will provide their revenue forecast on Friday, providing the final official forecast before the budget is inked.

The details:

Caseloads
The three largest increases are in education, corrections, and long-term care. The number of kids expected in school has risen, increasing estimated costs by $9.9 million. Corrections costs have increased by $9.7 million. Long-term care caseloads have risen as the incomes of elderly people have fallen, making them eligible for Medicaid, costing an additional $18.9 million. On net, all other areas have seen decreases of $11.7 million.

Program costs
The biggest factor in OFM’s estimate of increased program costs is a $65.7 million increase in education costs due to new expectations about the K-12 staffing mix.